Description: The authors introduce an alternative to Tail Contribution Analysis TCA for analyzing business segments and strategies called Economic Profit Analysis EPA. They discuss EPA’s key feature, “volatility replication,” an intuitively appealing process of building investor expectations and capital market information into the risk-and-return measurements used to evaluate strategic decisions. Finally, they illustrate the benefit of using EPA in overcoming the problems of TCA and thereby providing concise reliable information for business decision making.

Description: This paper illustrates a current approach to capital allocation, referred to herein as Tail Contribution Analysis TCA, using it to evaluate the impact of changes in an insurer’s operations by allocating capital to individual lines of business. It then highlights a common problem in the implementation of the procedure arising from reserve volatility and briefly notes the failure of the methodology to account for a firm’s changing levels of risk under various strategies. Finally, it introduces an alternative method for analyzing business segments and strategies called Economic Profit Analysis EPA. We will discuss EPA’s key feature, “volatility replication,” an intuitively appealing process of building investor expectations and capital market information into the risk-and-return measurements used to evaluate strategic decisions. Finally, we will illustrate the benefit of using EPA in overcoming the problems of TCA and thereby providing concise reliable information for business decision making.

Description: What is the best way to calculate liability duration for premium paying products?

Description: Is Risk/Return a sound tool for decision-making? No. It is not consistent, not objective, distorts decision and degrades governance. Why? What shall we do then?

Description: This paper shows an approach whereby future asset returns and liabilities are modeled taking into account the probability of various returns. It develops an asset-smoothing approach that uses an expected return on the asset mix and averages both historical and projected asset values. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: Pricing longevity swap reinsurance transactions consists of a number of different actuarial tasks, each of which hides potential pitfalls. The article outlines the pricing process, which includes a detailed analysis of current mortality experience of the portfolio to be transferred, choice and calibration of an appropriate model for mortality improvement trends and the calculation of a risk margin which reflects the uncertainty associated with the pricing best-estimate, which includes mis-estimation risk, model risk, longevity basis risk and stochastic uncertainty.

Description: Feature article describing how due to the recent financial crisis, fund trustees, plan sponsors, and administrators are reconsidering traditional asset-allocation strategies.

Description: Fiduciaries play a vital role in the financial health of a pension plan. How they carry out their duties is a question of increasing interest to beneficiaries, regulators, shareholders and taxpayers. Having a clear, logical and well-documented risk management process in place can make a big difference.

Description: This paper considers the risk that actual mortality will be lower than the mortality assumed when pricing life annuities on impaired lives. It develops a method for managing this risk through a Provision for Adverse Deviation PAD.

Description: This article discusses the impact of ERM on smaller insurance companies.